The Roles of Climate Variability on Runoff at Daily, Monthly, Annual,
and Long-term Scales
Abstract
Climate variability, in terms of the climatic fluctuations in
precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, impacts the variability
of runoff at different timescales. This paper developed a new daily
water balance model which unifies the probability distributed model and
the SCS curve number method, and provides a unified framework for water
balances across different timescales. The model uses a daily step but
can be forced with climate inputs varying at different timescales. The
model is applied to 82 MOPEX catchments, and the runoff at a coarser
timescale is aggregated from the daily runoff. For runoff at each
timescale, the relative role of each climate variability (daily,
monthly, or inter-annual variability) is evaluated by comparing the
modeled runoff forced with the climate variability at two consecutive
timescales. It is found that the runoff variability at the daily,
monthly, and annual scale is primarily controlled by the climate
variability at the same timescale. The monthly climate variability
significantly contributes to both the daily and inter-annual runoff
variability. However, both daily and inter-annual climate variability
play much smaller roles in monthly runoff variability. Besides monthly
climate variability, mean annual runoff receives considerable
contribution from the inter-annual climatic variability, which is often
disregarded in previous studies. The quantitative evaluation of the
roles of climate variability reveals how climate controls runoff across
different timescales.