The Mount Nyiragongo volcano is known for its active lava lake and for major socio-economic issues raising from future possible eruptive events having global impacts on the whole community living in the Virunga region. The 2020 field expedition inside the summit crater has allowed the collection of unprecedented field observations to state on the current eruptive activity. Since the intra-crater event of February 2016, the lava lake level has been rising much faster than during the 2010-2016 period. The current activity reminds the 1970-1972 and 1994-1995 periods preceding the lava lake draining in 1977 and 2002, respectively. Numerical simulations, successfully validated over the past 30 years of data, show that the rising of the lava lake could slow down in the next months/years and reach a critical equilibrium. However, we calculate that the probability of a failure of the system in the interval March 2024 - November 2027 is not negligible.