The effect of different climate sensitivity priors on projected climate:
A probabilistic analysis
Abstract
Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, warming in response
to a doubling of CO2) uncertainty is fundamental for making reliable
climate projections. We leverage the Hector simple climate model in a
probabilistic framework to explore how different ECS priors influence
long-term (2081-2100) temperature anomalies. Specifically, we quantify
how different ECS prior distributions broaden the uncertainty in
temperature projections. This method demonstrates a computationally
efficient probabilistic workflow that explores the effects of parameter
priors on climate projections. Excluding process and paleoclimate
evidence widens the resulting temperature projection uncertainty
(1.12-3.03 ℃ and 1.09-3.33 ℃, respectively) while using priors that
synthesize all lines of evidence leads to narrowed temperature
projection uncertainty (1.24-2.89 ℃). Our study shows that excluding
paleoclimate and process data in ECS priors broadens temperature
projection uncertainty. In contrast, synthesized evidence provides a
narrower and potentially more robust range of future temperature
outcomes.