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The effect of different climate sensitivity priors on projected climate: A probabilistic analysis
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  • Joseph K Brown,
  • Kalyn Dorheim,
  • Derek Mu,
  • Abigail C Snyder,
  • Claudia Tebaldi,
  • Ben Bond-Lamberty
Joseph K Brown
Joint Global Change Research Institute

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kalyn Dorheim
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Derek Mu
Joint Global Change Research Institute
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Abigail C Snyder
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Claudia Tebaldi
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Ben Bond-Lamberty
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
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Abstract

Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, warming in response to a doubling of CO2) uncertainty is fundamental for making reliable climate projections. We leverage the Hector simple climate model in a probabilistic framework to explore how different ECS priors influence long-term (2081-2100) temperature anomalies. Specifically, we quantify how different ECS prior distributions broaden the uncertainty in temperature projections. This method demonstrates a computationally efficient probabilistic workflow that explores the effects of parameter priors on climate projections. Excluding process and paleoclimate evidence widens the resulting temperature projection uncertainty (1.12-3.03 ℃ and 1.09-3.33 ℃, respectively) while using priors that synthesize all lines of evidence leads to narrowed temperature projection uncertainty (1.24-2.89 ℃). Our study shows that excluding paleoclimate and process data in ECS priors broadens temperature projection uncertainty. In contrast, synthesized evidence provides a narrower and potentially more robust range of future temperature outcomes.
08 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
11 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive