Improving Solar Radiation Forecasts during Stratocumulus Conditions
using Large Eddy Simulations and an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Abstract
Forecasting solar radiation is critical for balancing the electricity
grid due to increasing production from solar energy. To this end, we
need precise simulation of clouds, which is traditionally done by
numerical weather prediction. However, these large-scale (LS) models
struggle especially with forecasting stratocumulus clouds because their
coarse vertical resolution cannot capture the sharp inversion present at
stratocumulus cloud top. To address this issue, we employ large eddy
simulation (LES), which operates at high resolution and has demonstrated
superior accuracy in simulating stratocumulus clouds. However, LES
relies on input data from a LS model, which is imperfect. To reduce the
uncertainty caused by the LS data, we integrate a single ensemble Kalman
filter step at the start of simulation in the LES model, utilizing local
observations. Our results show that this approach is computationally
feasible, robust, and reduces prediction error at assimilation by
50\%. The improvement diminishes after approximately one
hour of simulation due to the influence of large-scale forcing. Future
work will focus on enhancing the LS inflow through nested simulations
with realistic lateral boundary conditions to sustain the improvements
in forecasting accuracy.