Habitat Mapping of Bos gaurus in Parsa National Park, Nepal: Ensemble
Modeling Approach
Abstract
The Gaur (Bos gaurus), a globally vulnerable and protected priority
species in Nepal, has experienced habitat loss and fragmentation,
poaching, and zoonotic diseases. As a consequence, their population is
isolated significantly in Parsa National Park and Chitwan National Park.
However, their distribution even in these protected areas are limited
with topographical features. This study focuses on habitat suitability
modeling of the Gaur in Parsa National Park utilizing the ensemble
modeling approach to identify key eco-geographical and climatic
variables influencing gaur suitable habitat and estimate suitability in
and around Parsa National Park, Nepal. Potential eco-geographical
variables, after multicollinearity test were integrated with ground
presence points for analysis. The model achieved an Area Under Curve
(AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) value of 0.981 and 0.867
respectively indicating its effectiveness in predicting a suitable
habitat for Gaur. It revealed that isothermality, waterholes, mean
diurnal range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, settlements, slope,
and river, influenced highly in Gaur’s habitat suitability in and around
Parsa National Park. Study identified only 35.84% (327.09 km2) area was
categorized as a suitable area (low-medium: 102.92 km2 (11.28%), medium
to high: 101.08 km2 (11.07%) and optimum: 123.09 km2 (13.49%)) for
gaur distribution. Eastern part of park (newly extended area around
Halkhoriya lake) and south-central section of park (around Bhedaha,
Mahadev, Bhata Khola) show the suitable habitat for Gaur. However,
wildlife-friendly infrastructure in the East-West Highway (that
fragments the park) within park can facilitate Gaur’s movement among
these crucial habitat patches. These findings highlight priority to
restore water sources to maintain long-term protection of species
considering existing geological condition and climate change scenario in
the park.