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Habitat Mapping of Bos gaurus in Parsa National Park, Nepal: Ensemble Modeling Approach
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  • Anish Dhakal,
  • Dinesh Neupane,
  • Sunjeep Pun,
  • Sheila Ghimire,
  • Manoj Shah,
  • Bikash Adhikari,
  • Jeetendra Gautam
Anish Dhakal
Agriculture and Forestry University
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Dinesh Neupane
Zoological Society of London

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sunjeep Pun
Zoological Society of London
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Sheila Ghimire
Resources Himalaya Foundation
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Manoj Shah
Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation
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Bikash Adhikari
Agriculture and Forestry University
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Jeetendra Gautam
Agriculture and Forestry University
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Abstract

The Gaur (Bos gaurus), a globally vulnerable and protected priority species in Nepal, has experienced habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, and zoonotic diseases. As a consequence, their population is isolated significantly in Parsa National Park and Chitwan National Park. However, their distribution even in these protected areas are limited with topographical features. This study focuses on habitat suitability modeling of the Gaur in Parsa National Park utilizing the ensemble modeling approach to identify key eco-geographical and climatic variables influencing gaur suitable habitat and estimate suitability in and around Parsa National Park, Nepal. Potential eco-geographical variables, after multicollinearity test were integrated with ground presence points for analysis. The model achieved an Area Under Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) value of 0.981 and 0.867 respectively indicating its effectiveness in predicting a suitable habitat for Gaur. It revealed that isothermality, waterholes, mean diurnal range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, settlements, slope, and river, influenced highly in Gaur’s habitat suitability in and around Parsa National Park. Study identified only 35.84% (327.09 km2) area was categorized as a suitable area (low-medium: 102.92 km2 (11.28%), medium to high: 101.08 km2 (11.07%) and optimum: 123.09 km2 (13.49%)) for gaur distribution. Eastern part of park (newly extended area around Halkhoriya lake) and south-central section of park (around Bhedaha, Mahadev, Bhata Khola) show the suitable habitat for Gaur. However, wildlife-friendly infrastructure in the East-West Highway (that fragments the park) within park can facilitate Gaur’s movement among these crucial habitat patches. These findings highlight priority to restore water sources to maintain long-term protection of species considering existing geological condition and climate change scenario in the park.