Abstract
Recently, \citeA{Biagioli2023} used a simple stochastic
model to derive a dimensionless parameter to predict convective self
aggregation (SA) development, which was based on the derivation of the
maximum free convective distance ($d_{clr}$) expected in the
pre-aggregated, random state. Our goal is to test and further
investigate this hypothesis, namely that $d_{clr}$ can predict SA
occurrence, using an ensemble of twenty-four distinct combinations of
horizontal mixing, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and microphysical
parameterizations. We conclude that the key impact of parameterization
schemes on SA is through their control of the number of convective cores
and their relative spacing, $d_{clr}$, which itself is impacted by
cold-pool (CP) properties and mean updraft core size. SA is more likely
when the convective core count is small, while CPs modify convective
spacing via suppression in their interiors and triggering by gust-front
convergence and collisions. Each parameterization scheme emphasizes a
different mechanism. Subgrid-scale horizontal turbulent mixing mainly
affects SA through the determination of convective core size and thus
spacing. The sensitivity to the microphysics is mainly through rain
evaporation and the subsequent impact on CPs, while perturbations to the
ice cloud microphysics have a limited effect. Non-local PBL mixing
schemes promote SA primarily by increasing convective inhibition through
inversion entrainment and altering low cloud amounts, leading to fewer
convective cores and larger $d_{clr}$.