Causal Analyses Suggest Moisture Deficit and Radiation Drive
Carbon-Dioxide Growth Rate in the Atmosphere Although Uncertainties
Remain
Abstract
A knowledge gap in our understanding of the global carbon and water
cycle, which in turn impacts climate science insights and earth systems
model development, is the relative dominance of the drivers of
vegetation productivity and subsequently the atmospheric carbon-dioxide
growth rates (CGR). There is a lively debate in the literature based on
correlation or bivariate causal methods, on whether the primary
driver(s) is (are) temperature (T) or water availability, specifically,
precipitation (P), soil moisture (SM), and/or terrestrial water storage
(TWS). Our data-driven causal analyses, which rely on Granger Causality
(GC) and the Peter and Clarke Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI)
tests, consider all potential causal variables holistically, and reveal
two primary atmospheric drivers for net ecosystem exchange and CGR:
vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and photosynthetically active radiation
(PAR). Our findings challenge recent literature, underscore the critical
role of evaporative demand and vegetation dynamics in atmospheric carbon
sensitivity, and highlight the need for more robust causal testing
methods.