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Quantifying ecosystem service fluctuations in response to land cover conversion and climate extremes as an index of ecosystem degradation and restoration.
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  • Emeka edwin Igboeli,
  • Ogbue Chukwuka,
  • Friday Ochege,
  • Gift Donu Fidelis,
  • Ishfaq Gujree,
  • Muhammad Afzal,
  • Rafiq Hamdi,
  • Albert Maniraho,
  • Xiaofei Ma,
  • Geping Luo
Emeka edwin Igboeli
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ogbue Chukwuka
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Friday Ochege
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Gift Donu Fidelis
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Ishfaq Gujree
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Muhammad Afzal
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Rafiq Hamdi
Universiteit Gent Universiteitsbibliotheek Gent
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Albert Maniraho
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Xiaofei Ma
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Geping Luo
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology
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Abstract

Changes in key ecosystem service parameters (Water balance residual (eWBR), Carbon storage (CS) and carbon sequestration (C.Seq)),and their response to land cover conversions and climate variability as an index of ecosystem restoration and degradation, in arid and semi-arid endorheic inland basins, vis-à-vis the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remained underexplored. Thus, this study used the multi-layer perceptron model to simulate and predict land cover changes (LCC), the CASA-GRAMI, the InVEST, and Hargreaves-Sumani models estimated the ecosystem services. Whereas, the Ordinary Least Square Regression predicted changes in ecosystem services from anthropo-climatic factors while the Theil-Sen slopes, pixel correlations, and the advanced geostatistical methods examined the trends and responses of ecosystem services to land conversions and climate extremes. The results revealed degraded baseline condition in C.Seq and CS coefficients for LCB and ASB (1.858 and -0.025 and -0.002). In LCB, temperature and NDVI predicted a decreased eWBR, while, precipitation and LCC predicted a decreased CS. Also, the depletion of shrublands occasioned by its conversion to cropland degraded CS and C.Seq, opposing the SDGS. Furthermore, increased precipitation restored CS and C.Seq and vice versa. Contrastingly, in ASB, the temperature and precipitation predicted an increase eWBR, while the temperature predicted a decrease in CS. Furthermore, the conversion of bareland and grassland to cropland restored CS and C.Seq, as well as, reduced precipitation restored CS due to snowmelt and temperature increase. Temperature increases in LCB degrades CS and eWBR, while in ASB, it restores CS and carbon sink. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive and sustainable land and water management, climate strategies, and continuous monitoring of land cover changes to enhance ecosystem services and health to meet the SDGs through Inter-regional cooperation and knowledge sharing.