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Storylines of Future Drought in the Face of Uncertain Rainfall Projections: a New Zealand Case Study
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  • Hamish Lewis,
  • Luke James Harrington,
  • Peter B Gibson,
  • Neelesh Rampal
Hamish Lewis
University of Waikato

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Luke James Harrington
University of Waikato
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Peter B Gibson
NIWA
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Neelesh Rampal
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland
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Abstract

Robust increases in temperatures will occur globally across the twenty-first century; however, for some regions, sign changes in rainfall remain uncertain. Navigating this uncertainty is crucial in addressing drought-related challenges faced by climate-exposed sectors. New Zealand represents these challenges, exhibiting significant model uncertainty in warm-season rainfall change. Here, we examine how temperature-driven increases in potential evapotranspiration interact with contrasting storylines of future rainfall to explore drought outcomes for New Zealand. In our drying storyline, we find that increasing temperatures accompanied by less rainfall bring forward the onset of drought several months and delay its termination. In the wetting storyline, increases in rainfall partly offset the temperature-induced drying effect, leading to minor reductions in soil moisture. Examining extreme years, the average hydrological year in the future becomes comparable to the driest years of the current climate, while the worst future events exhibit unprecedented drought severity.
24 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
25 Oct 2024Published in ESS Open Archive