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Worsened ozone pollution exacerbates the loss of agricultural production in China
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  • Guanjie Jiao,
  • Lei Chen,
  • Ke Li,
  • Jia Zhu,
  • Xuan Dong,
  • Xiaochen Zhu,
  • Yang Yang,
  • Xu Yue,
  • Hong Liao
Guanjie Jiao
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Lei Chen
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ke Li
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Jia Zhu
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Xuan Dong
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Xiaochen Zhu
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Yang Yang
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Xu Yue
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
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Hong Liao
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Abstract

China has been experiencing severe ozone (O3) pollution, and the high concentration of O3 exposure can damage crop production, which will threaten the national food security. To better estimate the impact of O3 on crop production loss (CPL), we collect O3 data from CNEMC (China National Environmental Monitoring Centre) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models to quantify O3-induced production losses in the four main crops (i.e., wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) during the historical (2013-2018) and future (2019-2099) periods. Results confirm that the impacts of O3 damage on CPLs become more and more serious during 2013-2018 in China, with the six-year mean losses of 12.2 Mt (8.5%) for wheat, 8.4 Mt (3.8%) of rice, 4.3 Mt (1.6%) of maize, and 0.7 Mt (4.8%) of soybean. The worsened O3 pollution under SSP3-7.0 scenario during the late-century will cause 283.6% (170.3%, 479.4%, 168.0%) increase in wheat (rice, maize, soybean) production losses relative to that in 2018, while the improved O3 air quality under SSP1-2.6 scenario can decrease 73.8% (69.3%, 80.8%, 75.5%) wheat (rice, maize, soybean) yield losses during the late-century relative to 2018. China has the largest population and food consumption worldwide, and the persistent O3 deterioration does have exacerbated the loss of agricultural productions. Therefore, stricter control measures are urgently needed to improve O3 air quality for ensuring national and even per capita food security in future.
22 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
28 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive