Worsened ozone pollution exacerbates the loss of agricultural production
in China
Abstract
China has been experiencing severe ozone (O3) pollution, and the high
concentration of O3 exposure can damage crop production, which will
threaten the national food security. To better estimate the impact of O3
on crop production loss (CPL), we collect O3 data from CNEMC (China
National Environmental Monitoring Centre) and CMIP6 (Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models to quantify O3-induced
production losses in the four main crops (i.e., wheat, rice, maize, and
soybean) during the historical (2013-2018) and future (2019-2099)
periods. Results confirm that the impacts of O3 damage on CPLs become
more and more serious during 2013-2018 in China, with the six-year mean
losses of 12.2 Mt (8.5%) for wheat, 8.4 Mt (3.8%) of rice, 4.3 Mt
(1.6%) of maize, and 0.7 Mt (4.8%) of soybean. The worsened O3
pollution under SSP3-7.0 scenario during the late-century will cause
283.6% (170.3%, 479.4%, 168.0%) increase in wheat (rice, maize,
soybean) production losses relative to that in 2018, while the improved
O3 air quality under SSP1-2.6 scenario can decrease 73.8% (69.3%,
80.8%, 75.5%) wheat (rice, maize, soybean) yield losses during the
late-century relative to 2018. China has the largest population and food
consumption worldwide, and the persistent O3 deterioration does have
exacerbated the loss of agricultural productions. Therefore, stricter
control measures are urgently needed to improve O3 air quality for
ensuring national and even per capita food security in future.