The fusion of 3D-Var method and HT-Unet Deep Learning Model to improve
the computational efficiency and SO2 forecast accuracy
Abstract
Data assimilation (DA) integrates the latest observational data into
initial background field, producing an optimal analysis field in
continuous time and space within the realm of numerical model
forecasting to improve forecasting. However, its computational
efficiency remains a concern due to its relatively slow processing
speed. Alternatively, deep learning (DL) methods train assimilation
models using observational or forecast data as labels, but its
effectiveness is often constrained by the accuracy of these labels. In
this paper, we proposed a novel approach that combined three-dimensional
variational assimilation (3D-Var) with DL method, which integrated the
Hadamard attention mechanism and Transformer modules into the Unet
framework (HT-Unet) to assimilate sulfur dioxide (SO2) and improve the
forecast skill. This hybrid method not only significantly improved the
forecast accuracy but also accelerated computational processes. Three
forecast experiments were conducted with background filed, 3D-Var, and
HT-Unet analysis fields to assess forecast improvements in SO2
concentration. The results showed that the correlation with HT-Unet
analysis field was nearly 50% higher than the background field, which
was comparable to those from 3D-Var analysis field. The RMSEs of the SO2
concentration in the HT-Unet and 3D-Var DA experiments were reduced by
2.59 µg/m³ (29.50%), and 2.60 µg/m³ (29.61%). Additionally, the
HT-Unet method achieved computational efficiency far surpassing
traditional methods, which was 34 times faster than traditional
approaches for assimilating a single analysis. The new method
demonstrated the potential to replace the traditional 3D-Var method,
overcoming the high-cost limitations of conventional variational
assimilation and significantly enhancing air pollution forecasting
accuracy.