Predicting Solar Flare Activity of Solar Cycle 25 Using GOES Soft X-ray
Flux and Chromospheric Flare Index via the Improved Informer-based
Models
Abstract
Solar flares are major manifestations of solar activity, characterized
by intense radiation and particle emissions that affect the entire solar
system. High-accurate prediction of solar flare events for solar cycle
25 is crucial for understanding and mitigating these effects. In this
work, we used soft X-ray flux from the GOES satellites and the
chromospheric flare index to predict solar flare activity for solar
cycle 25.
Our results show that: (1) There is a temporal and intensity asymmetry
between the northern and southern hemispheres, with the southern
hemisphere showing greater flare activity during solar cycle 25. (2)
Flare activity exhibits Gnevyshev peaks, and the double-peak structures
are more prominent than other atmospheric layers. The Gnevyshev peaks
may be related to the different timescales of the solar flare responses
to the geomagnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field. (3)
Chromospheric flare activity lags behind photospheric sunspot activity.
This phase lag phenomenon may be related to the magnetic energy storage
in the corona, indicating that changes in sunspot activity occur before
flare activity. (4) The activity level of solar cycle 25 will be more
pronounced than that of solar cycle 24. This phenomenon may be related
to the modulation effect of the Gleissberg cycle, which has been
validated by geomagnetic precursor indices. Our results provide valuable
insights into the temporal and spatial distribution of solar flare
activity during solar cycle 25.