Tracing the observed causal impact of diminishing summer sea-ice
concentration on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial
component of the global climate system and is believed to have slowed
down in recent decades. While model simulations indicate that
anthropogenic Arctic sea-ice melting drives this slowdown, observational
evidence for this connection remains lacking, leaving the attribution of
the AMOC decrease unresolved. In this study, we present causal
observational evidence, beyond mere correlation, that the recent
weakening of the AMOC is influenced by the decline in summer Arctic
sea-ice concentration over the past century, particularly between the
1950s and 1980s, coinciding with the Great Salinity Anomaly. Using two
methods—Convergent Cross Mapping from dynamical systems theory and
Information Flow from information theory—we demonstrate that modes of
AMOC variability are influenced by sea-ice melting. The AMOC slowdown
and its modes exhibit a causal lag of 1 to 3 decades relative to sea-ice
melting, aligning with model predictions.