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Tracing the observed causal impact of diminishing summer sea-ice concentration on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
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  • Denis Raducu Nichita,
  • Irina Dubet,
  • Mihai Dima,
  • Monica Ionita
Denis Raducu Nichita
Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering Department of Theoretical Physics

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Irina Dubet
Universitatea din Bucuresti
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Mihai Dima
University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics
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Monica Ionita
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial component of the global climate system and is believed to have slowed down in recent decades. While model simulations indicate that anthropogenic Arctic sea-ice melting drives this slowdown, observational evidence for this connection remains lacking, leaving the attribution of the AMOC decrease unresolved. In this study, we present causal observational evidence, beyond mere correlation, that the recent weakening of the AMOC is influenced by the decline in summer Arctic sea-ice concentration over the past century, particularly between the 1950s and 1980s, coinciding with the Great Salinity Anomaly. Using two methods—Convergent Cross Mapping from dynamical systems theory and Information Flow from information theory—we demonstrate that modes of AMOC variability are influenced by sea-ice melting. The AMOC slowdown and its modes exhibit a causal lag of 1 to 3 decades relative to sea-ice melting, aligning with model predictions.