loading page

Parameter Estimation in Land Surface Models: Challenges and Opportunities with Data Assimilation and Machine Learning
  • +26
  • Nina Raoult,
  • Natalie Douglas,
  • Natasha MacBean,
  • Jana Kolassa,
  • Tristan Quaife,
  • Andrew G. Roberts,
  • Rosie A. Fisher,
  • Istem Fer,
  • Cédric Bacour,
  • Katherine Dagon,
  • Linnia Hawkins,
  • Nuno Carvalhais,
  • Elizabeth Cooper,
  • Michael Dietze,
  • Pierre Gentine,
  • Thomas Kaminski,
  • Daniel Kennedy,
  • Hannah M Liddy,
  • David Moore,
  • Philippe Peylin,
  • Ewan Pinnington,
  • Benjamin M Sanderson,
  • Marko Scholze,
  • Christian Seiler,
  • Thomas Luke Smallman,
  • Noemi Vergopolan,
  • Toni Viskari,
  • Mathew Williams,
  • John Zobitz
Nina Raoult
University of Exeter

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Natalie Douglas
University of Reading
Author Profile
Natasha MacBean
Western University
Author Profile
Jana Kolassa
NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center
Author Profile
Tristan Quaife
University of Reading
Author Profile
Andrew G. Roberts
Boston University
Author Profile
Rosie A. Fisher
CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Author Profile
Istem Fer
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Author Profile
Cédric Bacour
LSCE
Author Profile
Katherine Dagon
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Author Profile
Linnia Hawkins
Columbia University
Author Profile
Nuno Carvalhais
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Author Profile
Elizabeth Cooper
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Author Profile
Michael Dietze
Boston University
Author Profile
Pierre Gentine
Columbia University
Author Profile
Thomas Kaminski
The Inversion Lab
Author Profile
Daniel Kennedy
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Author Profile
Hannah M Liddy
Columbia University
Author Profile
David Moore
The University of Arizona
Author Profile
Philippe Peylin
LSCE
Author Profile
Ewan Pinnington
ECMWF
Author Profile
Benjamin M Sanderson
CICERO Centre for International Climate Research
Author Profile
Marko Scholze
Lund University
Author Profile
Christian Seiler
Queen's University
Author Profile
Thomas Luke Smallman
University of Edinburgh
Author Profile
Noemi Vergopolan
Rice University
Author Profile
Toni Viskari
Joint Research Centre
Author Profile
Mathew Williams
University of Edinburgh
Author Profile
John Zobitz
Augsburg University
Author Profile

Abstract

Accurately predicting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change is crucial for addressing global challenges. This relies on mechanistic modelling of ecosystem processes through Land Surface Models (LSMs). Despite their importance, LSMs face significant uncertainties due to poorly constrained parameters, especially in carbon cycle predictions. This paper reviews the progress made in using data assimilation (DA) for LSM parameter optimisation, focusing on carbon-water-vegetation interactions, as well as discussing the technical challenges faced by the community. These challenges include identifying sensitive model parameters and their prior distributions, characterising errors due to observation biases and model-data inconsistencies, developing observation operators to interface between the model and the observations, tackling spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as dealing with large and multiple datasets, and including the spin-up and historical period in the assimilation window. We then outline how machine learning (ML) can help address these issues, proposing different avenues for future work that integrate ML and DA to reduce uncertainties in LSMs. We conclude by highlighting future priorities, including the need for international collaborations, to fully leverage the wealth of available Earth observation datasets, harness machine learning advances, and enhance the predictive capabilities of LSMs.
08 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
08 Oct 2024Published in ESS Open Archive