Parameter Estimation in Land Surface Models: Challenges and
Opportunities with Data Assimilation and Machine Learning
Abstract
Accurately predicting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change
is crucial for addressing global challenges. This relies on mechanistic
modelling of ecosystem processes through Land Surface Models (LSMs).
Despite their importance, LSMs face significant uncertainties due to
poorly constrained parameters, especially in carbon cycle predictions.
This paper reviews the progress made in using data assimilation (DA) for
LSM parameter optimisation, focusing on carbon-water-vegetation
interactions, as well as discussing the technical challenges faced by
the community. These challenges include identifying sensitive model
parameters and their prior distributions, characterising errors due to
observation biases and model-data inconsistencies, developing
observation operators to interface between the model and the
observations, tackling spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as
dealing with large and multiple datasets, and including the spin-up and
historical period in the assimilation window. We then outline how
machine learning (ML) can help address these issues, proposing different
avenues for future work that integrate ML and DA to reduce uncertainties
in LSMs. We conclude by highlighting future priorities, including the
need for international collaborations, to fully leverage the wealth of
available Earth observation datasets, harness machine learning advances,
and enhance the predictive capabilities of LSMs.