Quantitative diagnosis of forced uplift mechanisms for springtime MCS
initiation over the Great Plains
Abstract
The initiation of springtime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over
the U.S. Great Plains is strongly supported by synoptically forced
uplift. In this study, we first quantify these uplift mechanisms by
numerically solving the quasi-geostrophic omega equation in Q-vector
form. To provide a process-based assessment, Q vectors are decomposed
into shearwise and transverse components, representing changes in the
direction and magnitude of the potential temperature gradient along the
geostrophic motion. The composite analysis reproduces the upper- and
lower-tropospheric synoptic conditions favorable for MCS initiation,
which have been well documented in the literature. We reveal that
shearwise ascent, induced by a baroclinically organized trough–ridge
couplet, is the leading contributor to total dynamical ascent. The
contribution of an upper-level jet, which induces upward motion in its
right entrance region through geostrophic frontogenesis by confluent
motion, is minor as indicated by weaker transverse ascent. Likewise, the
lower-tropospheric transverse ascent, induced by warm frontogenesis at
the exit of the Great Plains low-level jet, plays a secondary role
compared to shearwise ascent. Furthermore, MCSs initiated under stronger
shearwise ascent tend to grow into larger, more precipitating storms,
while no significant sensitivity to initial transverse ascent is
observed throughout the MCS lifecycle. This study underscores the
critical role of baroclinic wave amplification not only in the genesis
but also in the subsequent evolution of MCSs, offering operational
insights for their prediction.