Quantifying errors in observationally-based estimates of ocean carbon
sink variability
Abstract
Reducing uncertainty in the global carbon budget requires better
quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and its temporal variability. Several
methodologies for reconstructing air-sea CO2 exchange from sparse pCO2
observations indicate larger decadal variability than estimated using
ocean models. We develop a new application of multiple Large Ensemble
Earth system models to assess these reconstructions’ ability to estimate
spatiotemporal variability. With our Large Ensemble Testbed, pCO2 fields
from 25 ensemble members each of four independent Earth system models
are subsampled as the observations and the reconstruction is performed
as it would be with real- world observations. The power of a testbed is
that the perfect reconstruction is known for each of the 100 original
model fields; thus, reconstruction skill can be comprehensively
assessed. We find that a commonly used neural-network approach can
skillfully reconstruct air-sea CO2 fluxes when and where it is trained
with sufficient data. Flux bias is low for the global mean and Northern
Hemisphere, but can be regionally high in the Southern Hemisphere. The
phase and amplitude of the seasonal cycle are accurately reconstructed
outside of the tropics, but longer-term variations are reconstructed
with only moderate skill. For Southern Ocean decadal variability,
insufficient sampling leads to a 39% [15%:58%, interquartile
range] overestimation of amplitude, and phasing is only moderately
correlated with known truth (r=0.54 [0.46:0.63]). Globally, the
amplitude of decadal variability is overestimated by 21%
[3%:34%]. Machine learning, when supplied with sufficient data,
can skillfully reconstruct ocean properties. However, data sparsity
remains a fundamental limitation to quantification of decadal
variability in the ocean carbon sink.