Abstract
Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem
carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought
and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the
globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems
using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation
biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a
space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the
effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature
sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We
also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover
changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite
data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to
grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity
of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability
exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We
identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought
sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction
globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative
sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands or
croplands, or a decreased negative sensitivity since forests under
current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance
compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings
emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem
stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations,
thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under
increasingly extreme climate conditions.