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Predicting Power flow and Wind Capacity Factor using Integrated Spatio-Temporal Approach
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  • Swaechchha Dahal,
  • Sambeet Mishra,
  • Gunne Hegglid,
  • Bhupendra Chhetri,
  • Thomas Øyvang
Swaechchha Dahal
University of South-Eastern Norway

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sambeet Mishra
University of South-Eastern Norway
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Gunne Hegglid
University of South-Eastern Norway
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Bhupendra Chhetri
Kathmandu University
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Thomas Øyvang
University of South-Eastern Norway - Campus Porsgrunn
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Abstract

This research proposes a novel spatio-temporal approach that integrates ConvLSTM (Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory) networks and GNNs(Graph Neural Networks) to model and predict wind power generation and its impact on power flow. By using ConvLSTM models, the work achieves an R^2 value of 0.977 indicating high accuracy in forecasting wind generation dynamics across various temporal and spatial scales. Meanwhile, the GNN model, achieving an R^2 of 0.771, shows a viable approach to modeling power grid performance without the need for traditional iterative Newton-Raphson load flow methods. While the GNN model could be further optimized, it does mark a substantial improvement in scaling machine learning for real-time grid management. By harmonizing these models, this research addresses critical gaps in current approaches to the integration of renewable energy sources into power grids, aligning with ongoing efforts to enhance grid reliability and efficiency in the face of increasing renewable penetration.
01 Oct 2024Submitted to IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
03 Oct 2024Submission Checks Completed
03 Oct 2024Assigned to Editor
04 Oct 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
11 Oct 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned