Abstract
The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will
have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with
air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few
studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even
fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses.
We analyse the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from
exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface level ozone (O3)
in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of
climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry
model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to
estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also
analyse the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000
people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air
quality mortality are achieved equitably.
We find that air quality-related mortality (PM2.5 + O3 mortality) will
only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%).
It could increase by 7.5\% following a medium-mitigation
scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The
differences are driven by larger reductions in PM2.5-related mortality
and a small reduction in O3-related mortality following the sustainable
scenario, whereas for the other scenarios, smaller improvements in
PM2.5-related mortality are masked by worsening O$_3$-related
mortality.
We find that less developed regions of European countries have higher
mortality rates from PM2.5 and O3 exposure in the present day, but that
this inequity is reduced following greater climate change mitigation.