Short-term power load forecasting based on spatial-temporal dynamic
graph and multi-scale Transformer
Abstract
Short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the
stable operation of power systems and effective planning in electricity
markets. Accurate load forecasting requires precise modeling of complex
patterns, including the spatial relationships between sequences and the
temporal changes within sequences. To address this, we propose a
spatial-temporal dynamic graph Transformer (SDGT) model. This model
consists of spatial-temporal dynamic graph modeling (SDGM) and
multi-scale Transformer modeling (MSTM). The SDGM component generates
dynamic graph structures in a data-driven manner, using graph
convolutional networks (GCN) to identify and model potential
relationships between time series. The MSTM component utilizes multiple
detected cycles in time series to segment the sequences into patches of
varying sizes and employs a Transformer to extract features at different
scales within the sequences. By combining both approaches, the model
captures both spatial dependencies between sequences and the temporal
variations within sequences, leading to more accurate load fore casting.
Experiments on two publicly available load datasets demonstrate that our
model outperforms a range of state-of-the-art Transformer and MLP-based
models.