Abstract
We implement an encoder-decoder artificial neural network (ANN) to
post-process decadal predictions of gridded air-sea CO2 flux produced
with an Earth system model (ESM) with prescribed CO2 emissions. Decadal
predictions are initialized by constraining the ESM with observational
data and drift toward the model unconstrained climatology. The resulting
biased forecasts require adjustments to make the predictions usable. By
leveraging the flexibility of the ANN to learn the complex nonlinear
relationship between raw forecasts and verifying data, and its ability
to learn from non-local spatial errors, we show that the ANN-based
adjustment outperforms standard bias and linear trend corrections for
the first 3 years in the forecast, both in terms of spatial and temporal
accuracy. The methodology is applied to emission-driven decadal
predictions produced with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis forecasting system, which contribute to the Global Carbon
Budget annual update.