Leveraging Data-Driven Methods to Estimate Stage-Discharge Rating Curves
and exploring Hydro climatological Drivers across the Contiguous United
States
Abstract
The increasing occurrences of global flood events, amidst climate
change, highlight the need for hydrological data availability over large
geographical domains for robust decision-making. Hydrological rating
curves translate fluvial stage to streamflow and play a pivotal role in
various applications, including flood inundation modeling and river
geomorphology. Power law is an appropriate proxy for the nonlinear
relationship between stage and discharge in natural systems. This study
aims to develop a hierarchical data-driven approach to compute the
power-law rating curve parameters (α, β) across the stream networks of
CONtiguous United States (CONUS). The development of rating curve models
is motivated by our interest in exploring a unifying solution linking
rating curve parameters with hydro-climatological and geomorphological
characteristics across CONUS. These can be applied to operational
hydrological forecastins, such as the NOAA Office of Water Prediction
NextGen framework, to enhance river routing and flood inundation mapping
efforts. We used HYDRoacoustics in support of the Surface Water
Oceanographic Topography (HYDRoSWOT), National Hydrography (NHDPlus
v2.1), and STREAM-CATCHMENT (STREAMCAT) datasets for model development.
Four empirical models—Multivariate regression, eXtreme Gradient
boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, Support Vector regression are
compared. The first tier of models offers high accuracy but is limited
to gauges, while the second-tier models offer a good compromise between
accuracy and applicability across CONUS. We found XGBoost yielded R² of
0.67 and 0.55 for α, and 0.74 and 0.70 for β in the first and
second-tier models. The spatial distribution of predicted α and β
indicates sensitivity to elevation, aridity, and rainfall patterns.