The Impact of Underestimated Southern Ocean Freshening on Simulated
Historical Sea Surface Temperature Trends
Abstract
Comprehensive climate models fail to capture historical sea surface
temperature (SST) trends in the Southern Ocean, where multidecadal
cooling occurred despite global warming. Efforts to explain this
discrepancy have invoked underestimated mixed-layer freshening, which
produces cold SST anomalies through enhanced stratification. However,
single-model freshwater forcing experiments have produced a wide range
of SST responses, and the relative importance of different freshwater
sources remains unclear. To address these ambiguities, this study
quantifies linear SST response functions for standardized freshwater
flux increases across CMIP6 models and estimates the 1990-2021 SST
cooling from observed freshwater inputs. We attribute the lack of SST
cooling trends in CMIP6 to missing Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater and
underestimated precipitation increases, each producing similar 1990-2021
cooling tendencies. Adjusting SST trends for these missing sources
improves model-observation agreement, quantifying, for the first time,
the impact of missing freshwater forcing on Southern Ocean SST trends
across a multi-model ensemble.