Abstract
By 2050, 68% of people are projected to live in urban areas. As cities
grow into steeper terrain, residents are increasingly exposed to hazards
like rainfall-triggered landslides. However, despite thousands of yearly
fatalities, few cities have established early warning systems to reduce
weather-related landslide risk. Rainfall thresholds that identify
landslide triggering conditions are a key component of early warning
systems, but limited landslide inventory data has hindered efforts to
determine thresholds for many cities. Furthermore, the magnitude and
variability of thresholds in and between urban areas worldwide has yet
to be quantified, leaving cities without inventories few options to
learn from others. We compiled 1216 urban landslides to estimate
rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for 26 cities worldwide and a
global threshold for urban landslides with a multi-level regression
model. We find that landslides were triggered under surprisingly similar
rainfall conditions in most cities despite widely varying climates,
topographies, and income classes. In 77% of cities, the median
threshold is indistinguishable from the global average. We show that
urban landslides occurred at lower threshold intensities than previously
reported for multiple land-use types, while 31% of landslides were
triggered below annual rainfall maxima. Our results suggest that
anthropogenic hillslope modification and malfunctioning infrastructure
facilitate slope failures in cities. We argue that urbanization
harmonizes rainfall thresholds between cities, overprinting natural
variability, and offer a baseline for warning in cities with sparse
landslide records.