Clustering of Right-Moving Tornadic Supercell Proximity Sounding
Profiles using an Explainable Framework
Abstract
Previous studies have clustered and analyzed proximity sounding profiles
associated with tornadic right-moving supercells. However, few have
objectively determined the optimal number of clusters or identified key
features driving cluster assignments. Using self-organizing maps, we
group soundings based on virtual buoyancy and wind profiles. A novel
recursive feature elimination reveals that virtual buoyancy at heights
of approximately 0.5 km and 1.4 km (near the level of free convection)
are the most significant features in this clustering, with both acting
as a proxy for the potential strength of convective inhibition (CIN).
The magnitude of virtual buoyancy at 4.7 km characterizes the potential
maximum strength of buoyancy (convective available potential energy;
CAPE). The virtual buoyancy magnitude at 9.3 km is also important,
likely corresponding to the height of the equilibrium level (EL).
Low-level (< 3 km) wind profiles, particularly the westerly
component, also play a key role in determining cluster assignments.