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Climate change impacts pair-bond dynamics in a long-lived monogamous species
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  • Ruijiao Sun,
  • Rémi Fay,
  • Francesco Ventura,
  • Bilgecan Sen,
  • Christophe Barbraud,
  • Karine DeLord,
  • Kristen Krumhardt,
  • Stephanie Jenouvrier
Ruijiao Sun
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Rémi Fay
CNRS
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Francesco Ventura
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Bilgecan Sen
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Christophe Barbraud
CNRS
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Karine DeLord
CNRS
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Kristen Krumhardt
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Stephanie Jenouvrier
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
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Abstract

Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly. Divorce was adaptive, occurring more frequently after breeding failure and leading to improved breeding success. Divorce probabilities also increased under severe climatic conditions, regardless of prior breeding success, supporting the ”Habitat-mediated” mechanisms. Generally, pair-bond disruptions reduced subsequent vital rates and lifetime outcomes. Climate forecasts from an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projected increased male widowhood rates due to decreased sea ice negatively affecting female survival, despite considerable uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of environmentally induced changes in demographic and pair-bond disruption rates as crucial factors shaping demographic responses to climate change.
15 Jul 2024Submitted to Ecology Letters
22 Jul 2024Submission Checks Completed
22 Jul 2024Assigned to Editor
22 Jul 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 Jul 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
23 Aug 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Major
02 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Sep 20241st Revision Received
02 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
02 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
03 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
13 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
13 Sep 20242nd Revision Received
17 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
17 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
17 Sep 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
19 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
29 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
29 Sep 20243rd Revision Received
30 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Accept