A Daily Load Forecasting Method Based on Federated Learning and
Transformer Model
Abstract
In view of the increasing difficulty of regional short-term load
forecasting and user data protection under the complex environment of
energy Internet, a daily load forecasting method based on federated
learning and Transformer model is proposed. Firstly, design a dynamic
privacy budget to improve the differential privacy algorithm, and
introduce it into federated learning for privacy protection of user
electricity meter data collection. Then, combining the improved GCN-TCN
and Transformer models to analyze the load data, and using it as a local
model for federated learning for collaborative training. Finally,
establish a daily load forecasting framework based on federated
learning, aggregate model parameters through the FedAdam algorithm, and
construct a global model to achieve high-precision load forecasting.
Based on the selected dataset, experimental analysis is conducted on the
proposed method, and the results showed that its predicted results are
very close to the actual values. Taking workdays as an example, its
MAPE, RMSLE, and MAE are 1.573%, 0.019, and 23.581MW, respectively, and
could effectively protect privacy and predictive performance.