Short-term Power Prediction of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems Based on
Multi-scale Feature Fusion using TPE-CBiGRU
Abstract
To address the key challenges of insufficient comprehensive extraction
and fusion of meteorological conditions, temporal features, and periodic
characteristics of power in short-term power prediction of distributed
photovoltaic (PV) stations, a TPE-CBiGRU model prediction method based
on multi-scale feature fusion is proposed. Firstly, multi-scale feature
fusion of meteorological features, temporal features, and hidden
periodic features in PV power is performed to construct model input
features. Secondly, CNN and Bi-GRU are utilized to model the feature
relationships between PV power and its influencing factors from spatial
and temporal scales, respectively, and the spatial-temporal features
extracted are fused through an Add network. Finally, the Bayesian
hyperparameter optimization method is adopted to further optimize
network parameters, achieving the prediction of single-station PV power.
Validation using measured data from a certain PV station shows that the
proposed method enhances the comprehensiveness of feature information
extraction from both data and model layers, significantly improving the
accuracy of short-term PV power prediction. Compared with other
prediction models, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) are reduced by 26.11% and 35.64%, respectively, and the
R-squared (R2) is increased by 3.07%.