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A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections from Three Regional Climate Models for a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5)
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  • Quentin Glaude,
  • Brice Noël,
  • Martin Olesen,
  • Michiel R. van den Broeke,
  • Willem Jan van de Berg,
  • Ruth Mottram,
  • Nicolaj Hansen,
  • Alison Delhasse,
  • Charles Amory,
  • Christoph Kittel,
  • Heiko Goelzer,
  • Xavier Fettweis
Quentin Glaude
Universite de Liege

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Brice Noël
Laboratoire de Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
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Martin Olesen
Danish Meteorological Institute
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Michiel R. van den Broeke
Utrecht University
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Willem Jan van de Berg
University of Utrecht
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Ruth Mottram
Danish Meteorological Institute
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Nicolaj Hansen
Danish Meteorological Institute
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Alison Delhasse
Universite de Liege
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Charles Amory
Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement
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Christoph Kittel
University of Liège
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Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Xavier Fettweis
University of Liege, Belgium
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Abstract

The Arctic is warming rapidly, significantly reducing the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and raising its contribution to global sea-level rise. Since these trends are expected to continue, it is essential to explore the GrIS SMB response to projected climate warming. We compare projections from three polar regional climate models, RACMO, MAR, and HIRHAM, forced by the Community Earth System Model CESM2 under a high-end warming scenario (SSP5-8.5, 1970-2099). We reveal different modeled SMB by 2100, including a twofold larger annual surface mass loss in MAR (-1735 Gt/yr) and HIRHAM (-1698 Gt/yr) relative to RACMO (-964 Gt/yr). Discrepancies primarily stem from differences in projected runoff, triggering melt-albedo positive feedback and subsequent modelled ablation zone expansion. In addition, we find different responses of modeled meltwater production to similar atmospheric warming. Our analysis suggests clear avenues for model developments to further improve SMB projections and contribution to sea-level rise.
02 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
03 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive