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Inference of Wildfire Causes from Their Physical, Biological, Social and Management Attributes
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  • Yavar Pourmohamad,
  • John Abatzaglou,
  • Erica Fleishman,
  • Karen Short,
  • Jacquelyn K. Shuman,
  • Amir AghaKouchak,
  • Matthew Williamson,
  • SEYD T SEYDI,
  • Mojtaba Sadegh
Yavar Pourmohamad
Boise State University
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John Abatzaglou
University of California, Merced
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Erica Fleishman
Oregon State University
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Karen Short
Unknown
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Jacquelyn K. Shuman
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center
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Amir AghaKouchak
University of California, Irvine
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Matthew Williamson
Boise State University
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SEYD T SEYDI
Boise State University
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Mojtaba Sadegh
Boise State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Wildfire prevention can be effective when actions deliberately target each wildfire cause. However, the cause of an increasing number of wildfires is unknown, hindering targeted prevention efforts. We developed a machine learning model of wildfire ignition cause across the western United States (WUS) on the basis of physical, biological, social, and management attributes associated with wildfires. Trained on wildfires from 1992-2020 with 12 known causes, the overall accuracy of our model exceeded 70% when applied to out-of-sample test data. Our model more accurately separated wildfires ignited by natural versus human causes (93% accuracy), but discriminated among the 11 classes of human-ignited wildfires with 55% accuracy. Our model attributed the greatest percentage of 150,247 wildfires from 1992-2020 for which the ignition source was unknown to equipment and vehicle use (21%), lightning (20%), and arson and incendiarism (18%).
09 Aug 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
12 Aug 2024Published in ESS Open Archive