Inference of Wildfire Causes from Their Physical, Biological, Social and
Management Attributes
Abstract
Wildfire prevention can be effective when actions deliberately target
each wildfire cause. However, the cause of an increasing number of
wildfires is unknown, hindering targeted prevention efforts. We
developed a machine learning model of wildfire ignition cause across the
western United States (WUS) on the basis of physical, biological,
social, and management attributes associated with wildfires. Trained on
wildfires from 1992-2020 with 12 known causes, the overall accuracy of
our model exceeded 70% when applied to out-of-sample test data. Our
model more accurately separated wildfires ignited by natural versus
human causes (93% accuracy), but discriminated among the 11 classes of
human-ignited wildfires with 55% accuracy. Our model attributed the
greatest percentage of 150,247 wildfires from 1992-2020 for which the
ignition source was unknown to equipment and vehicle use (21%),
lightning (20%), and arson and incendiarism (18%).