Permafrost thaw impact on remaining carbon budgets and emissions
pathways in 2°C and 3°C global warming
scenarios
Abstract
High-latitude frozen soils contain a vast store of organic matter, a
potential source of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thaw.
Understanding natural carbon cycle responses to climate change is
crucial for emission reduction strategies. We use the Max Planck
Institute Earth System Model, driven by the Adaptive Emission Reduction
Approach (AERA) and accounting for the impact of frozen soil carbon
(FSC), to assess emission pathways and remaining emissions budgets for
limiting global warming to 2°C and 3°C relative to preindustrial levels.
We found that thawing FSC adds 122 PgC under 2°C and 229 PgC under 3°C
warming, available for decomposition in active layer, with about 75%
reaching the atmosphere as carbon-dioxide by 2300. Emission pathways
that include the release of FSC diverge from their respective reference
simulations without permafrost by the middle and end of the current
century. By 2300, remaining budgets are reduced by ~13%
(115 PgC) for 2°C and ~11% (156 PgC) for 3°C
stabilization levels. Annual permafrost emissions average
~0.7 PgC/yr for 3°C and ~0.3 PgC/yr for 2°C
scenarios. However, temporary emission peaks reaching half of
present-day annual fossil fuel emissions (~5 PgC) are
possible. Surprisingly, while negative emissions are required for both
reference simulations, only the simulation for the 3°C warming,
accounting for FSC, requires negative fossil fuel emissions. This occurs
because the FSC release causes an earlier initiation of emission
reduction by AERA, resulting in a smoother emission curve. These
findings underscore the importance of factoring in permafrost thaw in
mitigation action.