Reliability Analysis of Integrated Electrical Energy Systems Considering
the Dynamics of Gas Networks
Abstract
In the analysis of the operational reliability of integrated electrical
energy systems, traditional numerical algorithms for solving natural gas
dynamics require a substantial amount of computation, making it
challenging to complete the analysis within operational time scales.
This paper proposes a novel method: replacing traditional numerical
methods with a CNN-LSTM neural network algorithm. The algorithm first
utilizes a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for feature extraction,
followed by a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) for feature sequence
prediction. Through a sequence-to-sequence learning process, the model
learns the mapping relationships between adjacent time steps from the
data, constructing a dynamic surrogate model for the gas network. This
dynamic surrogate model is further integrated with the power system load
flow model, combined with Monte Carlo simulation and multi-state models,
to comprehensively analyze the operational reliability of integrated
electrical energy systems. In the validation phase, the proposed model
was applied to a distribution network-level electric-gas integrated
energy system. The validation results demonstrate that the model not
only accurately simulates the complex characteristics of gas network
dynamics but also significantly reduces the computation time for
operational reliability.