Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric
Temperature Distributions
- Keiko Ino Kircher,
- Cristian Proistosescu,
- Ryan L. Sriver
Ryan L. Sriver
University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Author ProfileAbstract
Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non-Gaussian.
Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the
frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple
kinematic model for atmospheric mid-latitude temperature variability
based on symmetric advection from a non-symmetric background temperature
profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the
higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that
nonzero skew and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time-mean
meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an
idealized Held-suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of
time-mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to
nonzero skew and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model
analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate
change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in
the background temperature profiles.30 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive 01 Aug 2024Published in ESS Open Archive