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Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions
  • Keiko Ino Kircher,
  • Cristian Proistosescu,
  • Ryan L. Sriver
Keiko Ino Kircher
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

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Cristian Proistosescu
University of Washington
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Ryan L. Sriver
University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
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Abstract

Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non-Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid-latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non-symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skew and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time-mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held-suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time-mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skew and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.
30 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
01 Aug 2024Published in ESS Open Archive