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High-resolution national-scale water modeling is enhanced by multiscale differentiable physics-informed machine learning
  • +16
  • Yalan Song,
  • Tadd Bindas,
  • Chaopeng Shen,
  • Haoyu Ji,
  • Wouter Johannes Maria Knoben,
  • Leo Lonzarich,
  • Martyn P. Clark,
  • Jiangtao Liu,
  • Katie van Werkhoven,
  • Sam Lemont,
  • Matthew Denno,
  • Ming Pan,
  • Yuan Yang,
  • Jeremy Rapp,
  • Mukesh Kumar,
  • Farshid Rahmani,
  • Cyril Thébault,
  • Kamlesh Sawadekar,
  • Kathryn Lawson
Yalan Song
Pennsylvania State University
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Tadd Bindas
Pennsylvania State University
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Chaopeng Shen
The Pennsylvania State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Haoyu Ji
The Pennsylvania State University
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Wouter Johannes Maria Knoben
University of Calgary
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Leo Lonzarich
The Pennsylvania State University
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Martyn P. Clark
University of Calgary
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Jiangtao Liu
Pennsylvania State University
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Katie van Werkhoven
RTI International
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Sam Lemont
RTI International
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Matthew Denno
RTI International
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Ming Pan
University of California San Diego
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Yuan Yang
University of California San Diego
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Jeremy Rapp
Michigan State University
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Mukesh Kumar
University of Alabama
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Farshid Rahmani
Pennsylvania State University
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Cyril Thébault
University of Calgary
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Kamlesh Sawadekar
Pennsylvania State University
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Kathryn Lawson
Pennsylvania State University
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Abstract

The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting and planning and water management. Key challenges facing NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high-resolution (~37 km2) differentiable models (a type of physics-informed machine learning): one with implicit, unit-hydrograph-style routing and another with explicit Muskingum-Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions used neural networks to provide multiscale parameterization and process-based equations to provide structural backbone, trained them together (“end-to-end”) on 2,807 basins across CONUS, and evaluated them on 4,997 basins. Both versions show the great potential to elevate future NWMs for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.49 of NWM3.0. As they resolve heterogeneity, both greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long-standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum-Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10000 km2. Overall, our results show how neural-network-based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. We provide a CONUS-scale hydrologic dataset for further evaluation and use. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next-generation NWM.
24 Sep 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
26 Sep 2024Published in ESS Open Archive