PEGSGraph: a Graph Neural Network for fast earthquake characterization
based on Prompt ElastoGravity Signals
Abstract
State-of-the-art earthquake early warning systems use the early records
of seismic waves to estimate the magnitude and location of the seismic
source before the shaking and the tsunami strike. Because of the
inherent properties of early seismic records, those systems
systematically underestimate the magnitude of large events, which
results in catastrophic underestimation of the subsequent tsunamis.
Prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) are low-amplitude, light-speed
signals emitted by earthquakes, which are highly sensitive to both their
magnitude and focal mechanism. Detected before traditional seismic
waves, PEGS have the potential to produce unsaturated magnitude
estimates faster than state-of-the-art systems. Accurate instantaneous
tracking of large earthquake magnitude using PEGS has been proven
possible through the use of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN).
However, the CNN architecture is sub-optimal as it does not allow to
capture the geometry of the problem. To address this limitation, we
design PEGSGraph, a novel deep learning model relying on a Graph Neural
Network (GNN) architecture. PEGSGraph accurately estimates the magnitude
of synthetic earthquakes down to Mw 7.6-7.7 and determines their focal
mechanisms (thrust, strike-slip or normal faulting) within 70 seconds of
the event’s onset, offering crucial information for predicting potential
tsunami wave amplitudes. Our comparative analysis on Alaska and Western
Canada data shows that the GNN outperforms the CNN, especially on test
samples with low signal-to-noise ratios, providing more reliable rapid
magnitude estimates and enhancing tsunami warning reliability.