Abstract
Accurate simulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics by terrestrial
biosphere models is hampered by poorly constrained parameters and
parameter equifinality, amongst other issues. To address this, we use
Bayesian optimization to constrain the 16 SOC-related parameters in the
Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC).
We employed a global sensitivity analysis (Sobol’) to develop four
parameter sets based upon different sensitivity criteria. We then
optimized each set against observed SOC (World Soil Information Service;
WoSIS) and soil respiration (Soil Respiration Database; SRDB). Using two
different loss functions; one focused on reproducing the observational
mean value, and the other explicitly accounting for an estimated
observational uncertainty. The best optimized parameter sets from each
loss function had an average relative difference of 61%.
Thus the choice of loss function impacts what parameter values are
deemed optimal and should be considered carefully. The final selected
optimal parameter set saw a 12% improvement against WoSIS
and SRDB, had global SOC totals in line with literature estimates, and
better simulated high-latitude SOC stocks evaluated against the Northern
Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (RMSD: 16.39 vs. 17.61; bias: -5.57 vs.
-10.78 kg C m2) compared to the default CLASSIC parameters.
However, some parameters were not well constrained, in particular those
of needle-leaf deciduous trees which dominate Siberian boreal forests, a
region relatively poorly observed in WoSIS and SRDB. Future work should
apply further constraints on the optimization framework and address
observational gaps.