Abstract
Surface freshening of the Southern Ocean driven by meltwater discharge
from the Antarctic ice sheet has been shown to influence global climate
dynamics. However, most climate models fail to account for spatially-
and temporally-varying freshwater inputs from ice sheets, introducing
significant uncertainty into climate projections. Here, we present the
first historically-calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes
(sub-shelf melting, calving, and surface meltwater runoff) to 2300 that
can be used to force climate models lacking interactive ice sheets. Our
findings indicate substantial changes in the magnitude and partitioning
of Antarctic freshwater discharge over the coming decades and centuries,
particularly under very-high warming scenarios, driven by the
progressive collapse of the West Antarctic ice shelves. We project a
shift in the form and location of Antarctic freshwater sources, as
liquid sub-shelf melting increases under all climate scenarios, and
surface meltwater runoff could potentially become a dominant contributor
under extreme atmospheric warming.