Abstract
Ocean conditions are known to play a critical role in the
intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the relative roles
of ocean temperature and salinity stratification for ocean mixing and
TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling have remained unclear.
Furthermore, there has been limited quantification of which factors, in
terms of TC characteristics and pre-storm ocean state, are the most
important in controlling the amount of cooling. To investigate the
mechanisms that control the amount of ocean cooling under a TC, we use a
one-dimensional mixed layer model initialized with a variety of
realistic oceanic profiles and forced with different simulated tropical
cyclones. We then compare our findings to observations and reanalyses.
Results consistently show that the thermodynamic effect (changes in
vertical temperature gradient with density gradient held constant) is
2-3 times that of the mixing effect (changes in density stratification
with temperature stratification held constant) and that translation
speed and storm size are the two most important factors for SST cooling,
followed by temperature stratification. These results emphasize the
often overlooked role of storm size. We also investigate the potential
predictability of TC-induced SST cooling using TC and ocean predictors
in a linear regression model. It is found that this simple method,
trained on observations, performs as well as more complex methods.