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Building a multilake paleoseismometer for the Xianshuihe fault (Tibetan Plateau, China)
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  • François Lemot,
  • Pierre Sabatier,
  • Marie-Luce Chevalier,
  • Anne-Lise Develle,
  • Ziqi Fang,
  • Patrick Rioual,
  • Siqi Zhang,
  • Mingkun Bai,
  • Shiguang Wang,
  • Haibing Li,
  • Anne Replumaz
François Lemot
Université Grenoble Alpes
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Pierre Sabatier
Universite de Savoie
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Marie-Luce Chevalier
Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anne-Lise Develle
EDYTEM, Université Savoie Mont-Blanc, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS
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Ziqi Fang
Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics of Ministry of Natural Resources, Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences
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Patrick Rioual
Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Siqi Zhang
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration
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Mingkun Bai
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration
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Shiguang Wang
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration
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Haibing Li
Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences
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Anne Replumaz
ISTerre, Université Grenoble Alpes
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Abstract

The Xianshuihe fault, located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, stands as one of the most active faults in China. As assessing earthquake hazard relies on access to long-term paleoseismological archives, this paper seeks to optimize the interpretation of paleoseismological records. We developed a code that evaluates the plausibility of rupture scenarios against sedimentary evidence from nine cores in three lakes over a 30 km fault segment. Earthquake-related deposits were identified through grain-size analysis, XRF core scanning, and SEM observations of thin sections. Age models based on short-lived radionuclides correlate these events with historical earthquakes, which are recorded with varying sensitivities to seismic intensity across the three lakes. Each site is then used as a binary paleoseismometer, indicating whether or not an earthquake reached a local intensity threshold. The combined evidence allows to evaluate rupture scenarios on the Xianshuihe fault, according to rupture length-magnitude scaling laws and intensity prediction equations. The most probable scenarios allow to discriminate the rupture area and magnitude range providing a good agreement with historical reconstructions. Our work demonstrates the potential of combining earthquake records to infer the magnitude and rupture zone of paleo-earthquakes, even with a limited dataset. Our approach, applicable across diverse geological settings and timescales, offers enhanced precision in understanding long-term paleoseismology covering multiple earthquake cycles. However, establishing the synchronicity of events in such an active area—where earthquake return times are typically < 100 years—demands highly accurate age models, which remains challenging.
16 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
17 Jul 2024Published in ESS Open Archive