Building a multilake paleoseismometer for the Xianshuihe fault (Tibetan
Plateau, China)
Abstract
The Xianshuihe fault, located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,
stands as one of the most active faults in China. As assessing
earthquake hazard relies on access to long-term paleoseismological
archives, this paper seeks to optimize the interpretation of
paleoseismological records. We developed a code that evaluates the
plausibility of rupture scenarios against sedimentary evidence from nine
cores in three lakes over a 30 km fault segment. Earthquake-related
deposits were identified through grain-size analysis, XRF core scanning,
and SEM observations of thin sections. Age models based on short-lived
radionuclides correlate these events with historical earthquakes, which
are recorded with varying sensitivities to seismic intensity across the
three lakes. Each site is then used as a binary paleoseismometer,
indicating whether or not an earthquake reached a local intensity
threshold. The combined evidence allows to evaluate rupture scenarios on
the Xianshuihe fault, according to rupture length-magnitude scaling laws
and intensity prediction equations. The most probable scenarios allow to
discriminate the rupture area and magnitude range providing a good
agreement with historical reconstructions. Our work demonstrates the
potential of combining earthquake records to infer the magnitude and
rupture zone of paleo-earthquakes, even with a limited dataset. Our
approach, applicable across diverse geological settings and timescales,
offers enhanced precision in understanding long-term paleoseismology
covering multiple earthquake cycles. However, establishing the
synchronicity of events in such an active area—where earthquake return
times are typically < 100 years—demands highly accurate age
models, which remains challenging.