Rapid Emulation of Spatially Resolved Temperature Response to Effective
Radiative Forcing
Abstract
Effective assessment of potential climate impacts requires the ability
to rapidly predict the time-varying response of climate variables. This
prediction must be able to consider different combinations of forcing
agents at high resolution. Full-scale ESMs are too computationally
intensive to run large scenario ensembles due to their long lead times
and high costs. Faster approaches such as intermediate complexity
modeling and pattern scaling are limited by low resolution and invariant
response patterns, respectively. We propose a generalizable framework
for emulating climate variables to overcome these issues, representing
the climate system through spatially resolved impulse response
functions. We derive impulse response functions by directly deconvolving
effective radiative forcing (ERF) and near-surface air temperature
profiles. This enables rapid emulation of new scenarios through
convolution and derivation of other impulse response functions from any
forcing to its response. We present results from an application to
near-surface air temperature based on CMIP6 data. We evaluate emulator
performance across 5 CMIP6 experiments including the SSPs, demonstrating
accurate emulation of global mean and spatially resolved temperature
change with respect to CMIP6 ensemble outputs. Global mean relative
error in emulated temperature averages 1.49% in mid-century and 1.25%
by end-of-century. These errors are likely driven by state-dependent
climate feedbacks, such as the non-linear effects of Arctic sea ice
melt. We additionally show an illustrative example of our emulator for
policy evaluation and impact analysis, emulating spatially resolved
temperature change for a 1000 member scenario ensemble in less than a
second.