A seismic precursor 15 minutes before the giant eruption of Hunga
Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on January 15, 2022
Abstract
The January 15, 2022, eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH)
volcano started shortly after 4:00UTC. There had been noted unconfirmed
precursory events. We analyzed seismometer data recorded in Fiji and
Futuna, the closest stations operated during the eruption and located
over 750 km away. We extracted Rayleigh waves and estimated their powers
and source directions, assuming retrograde particle motions. We found a
Rayleigh wave from the HTHH’s direction about 15 minutes before the
eruption onset. The arrival time difference of the Rayleigh wave between
the two stations was consistent with that of the M5.8 earthquake during
the eruption located beneath the HTHH. Referring to other seismic
signals and satellite images, we concluded that the Rayleigh wave was
the most significant eruption precursor with no apparent surface
activity. Including our findings and results of previous studies, we
propose a scenario of the beginning of the caldera-forming eruption.