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Physics-aware Deep Neural Network for Bias Correction of 1–24-h Precipitation Forecasts
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  • Yan Ji,
  • Xiefei Zhi,
  • Dexuan Kong,
  • Luying Ji,
  • Yang Lyu,
  • Shoupeng Zhu,
  • Ting Peng
Yan Ji
Wuxi University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Xiefei Zhi
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Dexuan Kong
Guizhou Mountainous Meteorological Science Research Institute
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Luying Ji
Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences
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Yang Lyu
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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Shoupeng Zhu
Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences
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Ting Peng
Taizhou Environmental Monitoring Center
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Abstract

Accurate hourly precipitation forecasting is essential for local socioeconomic activities. Here, a U-shaped neural network (U-Net) with a customized loss function for precipitation is proposed to enhance 1–24-hour precipitation post-processing over Beijing, China. 36 precipitation-related predictors, informed by local forecasters’ expertise and grounded in physical constraints, are utilized as inputs. Permutation importance (PI) and saliency maps are used to evaluate the average and specific influence of selected predictors on U-Net predictions. The findings indicate the inclusion of additional predictors is crucial for bias correction, resulting in improvements of ~14.3\% in critical success index for precipitation exceeding 10mm/h. PI analysis reveals that associated atmospheric variables function as important supplementary indicators, and saliency maps visualizations suggest that key region influencing a given grid-point extends to ~30 kilometers for 1–24-hour precipitation forecasting. It demonstrates that integrating knowledge-based predictors is promise in advancing precipitation post-processing, and further understanding and interpretation of model is crucial.
29 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
01 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive