Distilling the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and
greenhouse gases to historical low-frequency surface ocean changes
Abstract
Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG) – the leading
drivers of the forced historical change – produce different large-scale
climate response patterns, with varying trend pattern correlations from
negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused
the time-evolving comparison between GHG and AER responses, we apply a
joint low-frequency component analysis on global sea-surface temperature
and sea-surface salinity response over 1921-2020 from CESM1
single-forcing large ensemble simulations. While GHG response is
well-described by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two
distinct modes. The first one features global AER increase and global
cooling, opposite to GHG-induced warming. The second mode features
multidecadal variations in AER distributions, where the recent shift
from North America/western Europe to southeast Asia emissions drives
regional changes enhancing the GHG effect. We argue that AER can have
both competing and synergistic effects with GHG, as their emissions
change temporally and spatially.