Summer mesoscale convective systems in convection-permitting simulation
using WRF over East China
Abstract
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are active in East China during the
summer, causing significant precipitation and extreme weather.
Increasing MCS frequency and intensity with climate change highlights
the need for better simulation and forecasting. Traditional global and
regional models with coarse resolution unable to explicitly resolve
convection fail to represent MCSs and their precipitation accurately.
This study conducted a 22-year (2000–2021) JJA simulation at a
convection-permitting resolution (4 km grid spacing) using the WRF model
(WRF-CPM) over East China. The WRF-CPM model’s ability to reproduce MCSs
was evaluated against satellite infrared-retrieved cloud top
temperature, IMERG V06 precipitation, and global reanalysis data ERA5.
Results show that WRF-CPM captures the observed MCS frequency and
precipitation patterns but overestimates them in most areas. The model
also accurately simulates the eastward propagation of MCSs, albeit at a
slightly faster speed and longer duration. MCSs in WRF-CPM exhibit
realistic life cycles in terms of cloud top temperature, convective core
area, and precipitation. WRF-CPM tends to overestimate rainfall
frequency over 20 mm/h while underestimates rainfall per MCS, possibly
due to an overestimated number and area. The model captures the diurnal
cycle of MCSs well in most of East China, though it shows a 2-hour delay
in southeast China and fails to reproduce the midnight peak to the east
of Tibetan Plateau, probably because of model’s limited ability to
represent thermal diurnal variation over complex topography. WRF-CPM
captures the shear effect on MCS precipitation, indicating increased
precipitation with stronger shear and higher total column water vapor.