loading page

Predicting Geomagnetic Activity Cycles
  • Timo Qvick,
  • Timo Asikainen,
  • Kalevi Mursula
Timo Qvick
Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit, University of Oulu

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Timo Asikainen
Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit, University of Oulu
Author Profile
Kalevi Mursula
Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit, University of Oulu
Author Profile

Abstract

The vast majority of solar cycle predictions focus on predicting the 11-year sunspot cycle, while space weather and geomagnetic activity predictions are largely made for short time scales, from hours up to a month. Here, we aim to predict geomagnetic activity in the solar cycle time scale. We use a 180-year composite of the geomagnetic aa index and fit each aa cycle between two successive sunspot minima with a parameterized asymmetric Gaussian curve. We show that the model reasonably describes the cyclic behavior of aa using only two free parameters. We present how these parameters can be forecasted using past aa values and a recently developed sunspot prediction model. Employing these estimated parameter values, we hindcast each past aa cycle from Solar Cycle 10 onwards and make a prediction for Solar Cycle 25, also estimating the uncertainties using a leave-one-out cross-validation methodology. Each cycle prediction is made at the time of minimum aa starting the respective cycle. For Solar Cycle 25, our prediction gives the aa index maximum of 21 +- 3 nT (at the original aa index level) early in the cycle in July 2022, suggesting that Solar Cycle 25, similarly to Solar Cycles 11 and 13, will not have a strong, long-lasting peak of geomagnetic activity in the late declining phase.
15 Nov 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
18 Nov 2024Published in ESS Open Archive