Abstract
While the service industry is generally considered a low-carbon sector,
it contributes significantly to global carbon emissions. However, such
emissions have typically relied on production-based evaluations without
accounting for emissions embodied in international trade. Here, this
paper estimates the consumption-based emissions (CBE) of the service
industry and investigates the flows of embodied emissions globally using
a Multi-regional Input-output model. Structural path analysis (SPA) and
decomposition (SPD) methods are used to explore emission reduction paths
and the driving factors. Our results show that the CBE of the global
service industry not only increased by 63% but now comprised
approximately over 30% of global total emissions, with the public and
welfare services, health services sectors contributing the most to
emissions growth. The consumption-based carbon intensity of the global
service industry declined markedly, or nearly one-quarter of global
carbon intensity. Advanced countries such as Japan, the UK, and the USA,
were identified as the leading net importers of embodied service
industry emissions, with air transport and water transport being the
primary sources of carbon inflow. Russia was the principal net exporter
of emissions. China altered from a net exporter of emissions to a net
importer. The results reveal that the second layer had a more pronounced
influence on the emissions than other layers, although the contribution
of higher layers to emissions steadily increased. Emission intensity
effect promoted emissions declines, while the increasing consumption
level restrained such decreases. This study aims to provide valuable
insights into reducing the emissions of the global service industry.