Lonely males at the front: A new open SCR model reveals the spatial
sex-age structure of an expanding brown bear population
Abstract
Range expansion is a common feature from invasive to reintroduced or
recovering populations. This process is mainly driven by population
growth and dispersal and, consequently, different species’ intrinsic
characteristics and dispersal mechanisms will result in contrasting
population structures in space. How individuals of different sex and age
classes are spatially distributed is key to understand and forecast
range expansions, but remains largely unexplored. Here, we developed an
age-structured open population spatial capture recapture (OPSCR) model
to understand how spatial sex and age structures can shape population
dynamics, as well as recovery processes. We use the expanding and
endangered Pyrenean brown bear population as case study, taking
advantage of a comprehensive non-invasive monitoring dataset collected
between 2017 and 2021. The expansion front was dominated by adult
(>4 years) and subadult males (2-4 years), while females
and juveniles (<2 years) prevailed at the core. Overall,
density declined with distance to the population core (area where last
bears remained in the ‘90s and where translocated females established).
Bear expansion was affected by the locations of the remnant range (i.e.,
the core areas) and constrained by female philopatry. Future projections
suggest that increasing reproduction events at the periphery could speed
up future population spread, and that this population will continue
growing even under some level of demographic stochasticity. Our novel
OPSCR model opens new pathways to understand complex spatiotemporal
patterns of expanding populations and, in the case of large carnivores,
could inform conservation action, for example, anticipating the adoption
of damage prevention measures and raising awareness campaigns on how to
coexist with bears in future expansion areas.