Abstract
Recent temperature records have triggered debate about whether global
warming is accelerating. Here, we examine for acceleration and explore
possible causes for regional differences using gridded surface
temperature data. We find that, global and regional warming is
accelerating, and on average, regions with low Human Development Index
(HDI) experienced much higher accelerated warming in comparison to
regions with high HDI. However, regions of low HDI with a large
population experienced slow acceleration due to high local aerosol
emissions. Since aerosol negative forcing impacts are short-lived and
localized, rapid future reduction of aerosol emissions without a
concurrent reduction in GHG emissions could have major compounding
impacts. Such a pathway, similar to most 21st century scenarios, could
expose a large fraction of the world’s most vulnerable people to sudden
warming acceleration and heat stress associated impacts. These results
call for targeted climate adaptation strategies directing attention to
low-socioeconomic aerosol masked regions.