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Shifting Phenology as a Key Driver of Shelf Zooplankton Population Variability
  • +4
  • Isabel A. Honda,
  • Rubao Ji,
  • Gregory L. Britten,
  • Cameron Thompson,
  • Andrew R. Solow,
  • Zhengchen Zang,
  • Jeffrey A. Runge
Isabel A. Honda
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Rubao Ji
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Gregory L. Britten
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cameron Thompson
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems
Andrew R. Solow
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Zhengchen Zang
Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University
Jeffrey A. Runge
Darling Marine Center School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine

Abstract

The timing of biological events, known as phenology, plays a key role in shaping ecosystem dynamics, and climate change can significantly alter these timings. However, few studies provide evidence of these effects in marine systems. The Gulf of Maine (GoM) on the Northeast U.S. Shelf is vulnerable to warming temperatures and other climate impacts, which could affect the distribution and production of plankton species sensitive to phenological shifts. In this study, we apply a multifaceted, data-driven statistical modeling approach to understand the population variability of Calanus finmarchicus, a lipid-rich copepod that is fundamental to the GoM food web. Our results reveal how phenology impacts the complex intermingling of top-down and bottom-up controls. Our findings suggest that early initiation of the annual phytoplankton bloom prompts an early start to the reproductive season  for populations of C. finmarchicus in the inner GoM, resulting in high spring abundance. This spring condition leads to enhanced predation pressure later in the season, consequently resulting in overall low C. finmarchicus abundance in the fall. These biologically controlled dynamics are less pronounced in the outer GoM, where water exchanges near the boundary have a greater influence. Our analysis augments existing hypotheses in fisheries oceanography and classical ecological theory by considering unique plankton life-history characteristics and shelf sea dynamics.
26 Jul 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
29 Jul 2024Published in ESS Open Archive