Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow Computation for Power Grid Including
Correlated Wind Sources
Abstract
This paper sets out to develop an efficient probabilistic optimal power
flow (POPF) algorithm to assess the influence of wind power on power
grid. Given a set of wind data at multiple sites, the marginal
distribution is fitted by a newly developed generalized Johnson system,
the dependence structure of wind speeds is matched by the flexible
Liouville copula. In order to lower the computational burden for solving
POPF model, a Lattice sampling technique is developed to generate wind
samples at multiple sites, and a Logistic mixture model is proposed to
fit distributions of POPF outputs, which can quantify the effect of wind
speed uncertainty on power grid. Finally, the proposed methods are
illustrated by case studies on the IEEE 118-bus system.